Grain and Cotton Bulls Are Eating ‘Humble Pie’ After Selloff, But They’re Still in Charge of Prices

Jim Wyckoff

Mon, May 18, 2026 at 3:00 PM EDT 5 min read

The grain and cotton futures bulls got a good taste of humble pie late last week after starting out the week snorting with hubris. July corn (ZCN26) futures on Friday fell 11 3/4 cents to $4.55 ¾, hit a three-week low, and for the week were down 16 1/2 cents. July soybean (ZSN26) futures Friday fell 15 1/2 cents to $11.77, hit a three-week low, and for the week were down 31 cents. July soft red winter (SRW) wheat (ZWN26) futures fell 22 1/4 cents to $6.35 3/4 but for the week were up 16 3/4 cents. July hard red winter (HRW) wheat (KEN26) futures lost 17 1/4 cents to $6.88 but for the week were up 12 1/4 cents. July cotton (CTN26) futures on Friday fell 333 points to 80.61 cents, hit a two-week low, and for the week were down 412 points. However, good price gains in all the above markets early Monday put the bulls back on more solid footing.

U.S.-China Summit Initially Disappoints Ag Traders

Grain futures saw bullish enthusiasm at midweek last week as soybeans hit a two-month high and July winter wheat futures scored over two-year highs for the contract. Cotton futures at mid-week hit a two-year high. Then the bottom fell out of the markets on Thursday and Friday.

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Heading into last week’s U.S.-China summit meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in China, grain market bulls were very upbeat about the prospects of more Chinese purchases of U.S. grain. However, they got “wrong-footed” when no concrete details on Chinese purchases of U.S. ag products came out of the meeting. While Trump and other administration officials did signal China would buy “billions” of dollars’ worth of U.S. ag products, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last Thursday said the U.S. and China already made a deal on China buying U.S. soybeans.

However, the weekend news that saw both the U.S. and China provide more specifics on China ag sales from the U.S. was a pleasant surprise for bulls and markets rallied sharply early Monday.

Still, the last two trading sessions of last week have humbled them, including the speculators who had recently climbed aboard the bullish train. Weak long liquidation and profit taking from the specs were featured Thursday and Friday. Traders tend to overdo it on the upside, as witnessed earlier last week, but also overdo it on the downside, as seen the past two trading sessions to end the week. I don’t look for more downside price potential in the grain futures markets in the near term. Monday’s pop in grain futures prices has reinvigorated the bulls.