Chevron at $196, ExxonMobil at $160: Buy, Sell or Hold?

Vandita Jadeja

Tue, May 19, 2026 at 12:56 PM EDT 4 min read

Quick Read

• ExxonMobil (XOM) reported Q1 underlying earnings of $8.77B, up 16% YoY, with a fortress balance sheet (net debt/EBITDA 0.55), trailing P/E of 27, and Golden Pass LNG loading its first cargo in April 2026 after delivering all 10 key 2025 projects.

• Chevron (CVX) absorbed Hess and lifted Q1 production 15% YoY to 3,858 MBOED but faces a trailing P/E of 33, negative $1.55B free cash flow in Q1, and net debt ratio of 17.9% post-acquisition.

• Both integrated oil majors have surged 30%+ year-to-date on stronger production and capital discipline, but ExxonMobil’s advantaged Permian and Guyana barrels combined with its Golden Pass LNG ramp offer a cleaner multi-year earnings tailwind than Chevron, which must still demonstrate FCF recovery and validate Hess synergies at its higher valuation.

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At $160.49, ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) is a buy and at $196.12, Chevron (NYSE:CVX) is a hold. The two integrated majors have both ripped higher in 2026 on stronger production, capital discipline, and renewed energy demand, yet their setups now diverge sharply on valuation and earnings power.

Both companies span exploration, refining, chemicals, and increasingly low-carbon ventures. Exxon leans on its 4.6 million oil-equivalent barrel per day production base, with Permian and Guyana now 59% of output. Chevron just absorbed Hess, lifting Q1 production 15% YoY to 3,858 MBOED and adding Guyana exposure of its own.

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Why The Bull Case Is Loudest On Exxon

Exxon trades at a trailing P/E of 27 and a forward P/E near 14, with 11% ROE and a fortress balance sheet (net debt/EBITDA 0.55). Q1 underlying earnings hit $8.77 billion versus $7.58 billion a year earlier, and management is executing a $20 billion 2026 buyback. Golden Pass LNG just loaded its first cargo in April 2026, and 10 of 10 key 2025 projects were delivered, adding roughly $3 billion in earnings power.

Chevron's bull case rests on Hess synergies, a $3 to $4 billion structural cost target by end-2026, and a 3.26% dividend yield backed by 39 consecutive annual increases. CEO Mike Wirth pointed to "record crude throughput in March" and disciplined capital allocation.

Where The Bears Have A Point

Chevron's trailing P/E of 33 sits well above Exxon's, even as FY 2025 net income fell 30.4% and Q1 2026 free cash flow swung to -$1.55 billion. Net debt ratio has climbed to 17.9% post-Hess, and Q1 absorbed $2.9 billion in unfavorable timing plus a $360 million legal reserve. Insider activity skews to net selling.