The Fed’s inflation tracker just flashed a warning: April and quarterly forecasts show prices are set to rise more

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The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation tracker just flashed another warning sign for the U.S. economy, and it could spell more financial pain ahead.

Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis in late April shows inflation pressures remaining stubbornly elevated, while new quarterly forecasts suggest that Americans may continue facing higher prices, slower growth and elevated borrowing costs for months to come (1).

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At the center of the concern is the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the inflation gauge that largely informs interest rates (2). With a year-over-year increase of 3.5% as of March 2026, the last month for which data is available, it hasn’t reached the heights of the post-pandemic peak in 2022 — but it remains well above the Fed’s 2% target.

Additionally, the core PCE price index — which strips out volatile food and energy prices — remains persistently high at 3.2% (3), reinforcing fears that inflation is becoming embedded in the broader economy. In March alone, the index ticked up 0.7%, or 0.3%.

While official April PCE data has not yet been released, several closely watched inflation trackers are already pointing to even more upward pressure on prices. The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s Inflation Nowcasting model (4), for example, estimates that year-over-year inflation increased to 3.83% in April, and it also estimates that inflation could rise further to 4.06% in May. Meanwhile, core PCE (without food and energy) is expected to remain elevated, at roughly 3.31% in April and 3.36% in May.

The quarterly outlook is also deteriorating. The Inflation Nowcasting model estimates show second-quarter annualized PCE inflation rising to 5.77%, whereas core PCE is projected to remain high for the quarter, at 3.6%.

What inflation means for interest rates — and you

If you’re holding out for interest rates to go down soon, you might be waiting longer than you’d like.

In late April, a Reuters poll of economists predicted that the Fed will wait at least six months before cutting interest rates this year, as “war-driven energy shocks reignite already-elevated inflation (5).” In other words, the war with Iran has made fuel prices go up, and now everything’s more expensive.

The Fed’s reluctance to lower interest rates is justified, as cutting them could push prices up further. Even before the recent oil shock, however, inflation had already been moving in the wrong direction. Prior to the war with Iran, analysts were noting that tariffs imposed under President Donald Trump were already contributing to steady price increases (6).

For consumers, the impact of inflation is already being felt. But inflation isn’t the only metric of economic health showing signs of distress.

Read More: Non-millionaires can now hoard property like the 1% — how to start with as little as $100

Prepare your finances now

While economists like those surveyed in the Reuters poll seem to expect inflation to remain above the Fed’s 2% target through much of the year, think tanks like The Conference Board have revised their forecasts of gross domestic product (GDP) growth downward (7).

Like with inflation rates, the projected slowdown of GDP growth is at least partly blamed on the war with Iran, which has led to eroding purchasing power and dampening growth. In addition, policy uncertainty caused by the war might lead companies to refrain from hiring new workers, possibly nudging unemployment rates higher.

And this remains true even as April’s jobs report came in stronger than expected, with the U.S. adding 115,000 jobs and unemployment holding at 4.3% (8). The mix of sticky inflation, softer growth and the possibility of rates staying higher for longer means households are likely to keep feeling pressure on borrowing costs and everyday expenses.

Preparing your finances now can help you stay one step ahead of the cycle. But what’s the best course of action?

This is where taking aim at the basics can help. In difficult times, it often pays to hold minimal debt and have a robust emergency fund ready to go.

And the best place to start for most? Paying down any high-interest debt you owe, if you can.

Pay down high-interest debt

If you have multiple high-interest debts and are struggling to pay them off, consider consolidating your balances into a personal loan through Credible. That way, instead of juggling multiple monthly payments, you’ll have one predictable payment to manage each month.

Through Credible's online marketplace, finding the right loan becomes much simpler. Credible lets you comparison-shop for the lowest interest rates with just a few clicks.

In less than three minutes, you’ll see all the lenders willing to help pay off your credit cards or other debts with a single personal loan.

If you owe a substantial amount, you may also want to see if you qualify for a debt relief program to help clear a significant portion of your debt.

With Freedom Debt Relief, you can speak with a certified debt relief consultant for free, who can show you how much you can save by partnering with them.

If you’re eligible, they can negotiate settlements with your creditors until all of your enrolled debt is resolved.

Cut down costs where you can

While paying off old debts is a great start, it’s also a good idea to think about cutting down on new expenses. After all, the lower your baseline expenses, the easier it becomes to stretch your paychecks, especially when the cost of living rises. You can also funnel the savings from your budget cuts right into paying down your debt.

That could mean downsizing to one vehicle, if it’s feasible, or just taking a closer look at what you’re paying for its insurance.

For instance, the average cost of full coverage car insurance climbed to $2,638 in 2025 — an increase of 12% from 2024, according to analysis by Bankrate (9).

The good news? You’re not stuck with your current rate. Comparing quotes, negotiating rates or adjusting your policy could reduce your monthly bill. Shopping around can sometimes make a big difference to your bottom line, but finding the time to do so — especially while working — is tough.

That’s why there are platforms like Insurify, which lets you easily shop around and compare quotes offered by reputable insurance providers. Just by comparing quotes and selecting the best deal, customers could see average potential savings of $1,100.

All you have to do is answer a few basic questions, and Insurify will show you the most affordable deals in as little as three minutes.

Not only is the process 100% free, but you could also save up to 15% by bundling your car and home insurance.

Create an emergency savings buffer

Once you start cutting down on expenses, you might start asking yourself where to put all that extra cash. Experts often recommend saving at least three to six months’ worth of expenses in a savings account to act as a kind of emergency fund in case something goes wrong — although some, like Suze Orman, recommend between three to five years.

Especially in times where inflation seems to be skyrocketing, you probably don’t want to revert to old habits and end up having to borrow again. An emergency fund could give you the financial cushion you need to get through hard times. But that money doesn’t have to just sit in your account doing nothing.

A high-yield account like a Wealthfront Cash Account can be a great place to grow your uninvested cash, offering both competitive interest rates and easy access to your money when you need it.

A Wealthfront Cash Account currently offers a base APY of 3.30% through program banks, and new clients can get an extra 0.75% boost during their first three months on up to $150,000 for a total variable APY of 4.05%.

That’s ten times the national deposit savings rate, according to the FDIC’s March report.

Additionally, Wealthfront is offering new clients who enable direct deposit ($1,000/mo minimum) to their Cash Account and open and fund a new investment account an additional 0.25% APY increase with no expiration date or balance limit, meaning your APY could be as high as 4.30%.

With no minimum balances or account fees, as well as 24/7 withdrawals and free domestic wire transfers, your funds remain accessible at all times. Plus, you get access to up to $8M FDIC Insurance eligibility through program banks.

Invest in inflation-proof assets

Even with an emergency fund in your back pocket, looking for safe investments to grow your wealth can be daunting with so much economic uncertainty. That’s why it’s can be a solid idea to consider investing in traditional safe haven assets, like gold.

Gold has long been considered an inflation hedge, and for good reason. When prices rise and the buying power of currency weakens, investors often turn to gold as a store of value that tends to hold its ground over time, unlike paper assets that can be more sensitive to interest rate shifts.

These days, you can combine the inflation-resistant properties of the precious metal with the tax advantages of an IRA by opening a gold IRA with the help of Priority Gold.

Gold IRAs allow investors to hold physical gold or gold-related assets within a retirement account, which combines the tax advantages of an IRA with the protective benefits of investing in gold, making it an attractive option for those looking to potentially hedge their retirement funds against economic uncertainty.

Setting up your account takes just three simple steps. And if you want to learn more about how adding precious metals can hedge your retirement nest egg, download Priority Gold’s wealth preservation guide for free.

Even better, you can get up to $10,000 in free silver on qualifying purchase. Just keep in mind that gold is often best deployed as one part of your portfolio.

A bad feeling about the economy

Mortgage rates remain high, credit card debt is more expensive and many households are still struggling with the cumulative effect of years of elevated prices on essentials like housing, insurance, groceries and healthcare.

Politically, the inflation outlook could become a growing challenge for Trump. The president has insisted that economic strength, tariffs and domestic manufacturing initiatives show his policies are working. But unwavering inflation threatens to undermine those arguments — particularly if Americans continue to feel financially squeezed.

That’s why markets are now increasingly betting the Fed will delay additional rate cuts until inflation shows clearer signs of cooling. Until then, the latest data suggests that the economy may face a longer and bumpier road back to price stability than many policymakers — and consumers — had hoped.

— With files from AnnaMarie Houlis

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Article sources

We rely only on vetted sources and credible third-party reporting. For details, see our editorial ethics and guidelines.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (1),(2),(3); Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (4); Reuters (5); Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (6); The Conference Board (7); U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (8); Bankrate (9)

This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.