Jamie Dimon warns markets have 'too much exuberance,' joining forecasters like Michael Burry seeing a looming correction

Cole Tretheway

Mon, May 18, 2026 at 3:25 PM EDT 5 min read

Hold the champagne — Jamie Dimon just gave investors a cause for pause. The JPMorgan Chase CEO told Bloomberg (1) the markets may have "too much exuberance" and he's "kind of a skeptic."

These comments come at a time when the stock market has rallied sharply off its March lows. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) fell about 9% from its January high before recovering to a nearly 9% gain for the year. (2) Dimon's cold-water remarks are a soft departure from general optimism.

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Outlier though he may be, Dimon isn't the only forecaster taking a cautious market stance. Michael Burry, who predicted the 2008 housing crash, recently posted on Substack (3) that the stock market party may be coming to an end. Both men cite broad-based signals as reason investors might want to think twice before diving into today's frothy market.

Oil and inflation risk lost to the noise

Dimon says consumers may be underestimating the risk posed by a potential oil crisis.

"Every day, it gets a little bit worse," Dimon told Bloomberg (1) in a discussion that touched on the war raging in the Middle East. On oil, the CEO says Chinese demand has fallen and U.S. supply has risen, cushioning prices for now. He warns the situation could escalate because inventories are dropping. "It gets a little more serious every day," he says.

Right now, Dimon isn't worried about consumer spending. However, he highlights a split between the top 50% and the bottom 30% of spenders, who are "struggling a little bit" thanks to stagnant wages. This claim is supported by 2025 data from the Economic Policy Institute, which shows real wages for low-income workers declined 0.3%. (4)

That could change if oil prices go up. An analysis published by asset manager Vanguard suggests that rising oil prices could push inflation higher and, if sustained, lead to stagflation — when prices go up, unemployment rises, and the economy stops growing. (5) It highlights the conflict in Iran, suggesting a prolonged war could raise prices and keep them high.

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Is AI the guest of honor, or another party crasher?

Burry blames AI for feeding what could be a massive, money-burning bubble. "Absolutely non-stop AI. Nobody is talking about anything else all day," Burry wrote in a May Substack post. (3)