Analyst revamps Circle price target by 76%

Analyst Mike Colonnese of H.C. Wainwright upgraded Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL) on May 18.

The revamp is due to the ARC token presale, announced on May 11 during Circle's first quarter 2026 earnings call.

ARC is the native utility token for Arc, Circle's Layer 1 blockchain network. As per Jeremy Fox-Green, Chief Financial Officer at Circle, the presale led by a16z saw $222 million being raised at a $3 billion network valuation.

Colonnese views the value creation opportunity it presents as thesis-changing for shareholders.

The firm also believes Arc's initial $3 billion fully diluted network value is undervalued when stacked against comparable Layer 1 blockchains. Arc's testnet metrics and design features, including stablecoin payments and tokenization, also point to significant upside.

Related: Bitwise makes wild prediction on Circle’s 2030 valuation

Core business steadies as rate cuts fade

Circle's stablecoin business is expected to find more stability in 2026 as Federal Reserve rate cuts become increasingly unlikely amid persistent inflation and elevated energy prices.

Circle issues the second largest stablecoin by market cap USDC. As of May 18, the USDC market cap stands at $76.9 billion, according to Coingecko.

Colonnese also pointed to upcoming product launches, including Circle Agent Stack and greater U.S. regulatory clarity as drivers of accelerated USDC adoption and broader uptake of Circle's payments infrastructure.

He upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral and also revamped the price target by 76%, from $85 to $150.

Circle was trading 4.93% lower at $108.38 at the time of writing, though year-to-date returns remain 36.91% higher.

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Clarity Act structurally favors Circle

Progress on the CLARITY Act is adding another layer to the bull case.

The bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee in a 15-9 markup vote on May 14 with bipartisan compromise language on stablecoin yield that Bernstein analysts argue works in Circle's favour, as per TheBlock.

The legislation bars issuers from paying interest functionally equivalent to a bank deposit on passive stablecoin balances, while preserving rewards tied to activities such as trading and payments.

Since Circle does not offer passive yield on USDC directly, relying instead on distribution arrangements and usage-based rewards through partners like Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN), the law effectively protects its model.