US Waiver Extension Keeps India’s Russian Crude Lifeline Open

Natalia Katona

Mon, May 18, 2026 at 7:00 PM EDT 7 min read

The middle of May brought very little good news to the Asian refiners, but the extension of the US waiver on Russian crude and oil products on May 18 has certainly become one. The Trump administration first introduced the waiver on March 12 for Russian crude and products already loaded on ships before that date, as an emergency response to the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting shortage of oil on the market. It was extended once in mid-April for another month, and for the second time on May 18, for another 30 days. For New Delhi, the extension comes as a significant relief, shielding its crude supply that has kept Indian refineries running through the worst of the Gulf disruptions on record.

India’s request to extend the waiver proved successful, securing continued access to much-needed volumes, as Russian crude has become central to India’s supply balance. In March and April, India was the largest buyer of seaborne Russian crude, taking 2.08 million b/d and 1.7 million b/d, respectively. That was roughly half of India’s average crude imports of 4.5 million b/d over the past two months. China, the second-largest buyer of Russian seaborne crude, purchased 1.8 million b/d in March and 1.4 million b/d in April. In May, India is set to receive around 2.1 million b/d of Russian crude.

The waiver never mattered to China in the same way. Many Chinese consumers of Russian crude are less sensitive to US sanctions in the first place, and China also has one of the largest crude stockpiles in the world. Its inventories rose from 1.22 billion barrels in March to 1.23 billion barrels after the Gulf conflict began and Hormuz was shut. That is enough to sustain even China’s massive domestic consumption of 14-15 million b/d for several months. India has no such cushion. Even before the conflict started in February, its crude inventories were only 106 million barrels. By April, they had fallen to 90 million barrels. With consumption of 5.5 million to 6 million b/d, those stocks are getting dangerously thin.

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The supply hit due to the Hormuz closure has been brutal. India has lost more than a third of its usual February monthly oil supply from Gulf producers. Saudi Arabia and the UAE remain the only Gulf suppliers still able to sell crude through bypass pipeline routes, but both are sending less than India would need. Saudi exports to India fell from 1.03 million b/d in February to 670,000 b/d in April. The UAE has managed to keep exports at around 550,000-600,000 b/d over the past two months but has little room to raise them. India has therefore been searching globally for medium-sour cargoes, the grades best suited to many of its refineries and the least available after Hormuz was blocked. It has turned to Latin America, importing 285,000 b/d from Venezuela in April and 275,000 b/d from Brazil, twice the previous month’s level. Nigeria has also exported more in April, but its crude is generally too light for Indian refinery needs.