Walmart's Q1 earnings expected to deliver yet again as Americans seek out value

Walmart (WMT) will report its fiscal first quarter earnings on Thursday morning before the bell. The retailer is expected to deliver strong results as Americans prioritize essentials like groceries and value.

“We believe Walmart’s focus on value and convenience, combined with strong execution, should drive profitable market share gains,” Telsey Advisory Group’s Joe Feldman said in a note to clients ahead of the report.

The big box retailer is expected to post same-store sales growth of 3.85%, with its US business leading the momentum, driven by higher foot traffic, ticket size, and e-commerce sales. US comparable sales are expected to be up 4%.

Thursday’s results will mark the second earnings report under new CEO John Furner. So far this year, Walmart stock has outperformed the S&P 500 (^GSPC), rising 20% compared with the S&P’s 7% gain.

Read more: Best credit cards for shopping at Walmart (May 2026)

The company is also expected to reiterate its fiscal outlook, which disappointed Wall Street in the previous quarter. Typically, the company waits until the second quarter to update its guidance, Deutsche Bank analyst Krisztina Katai said.

For fiscal year 2027, Walmart forecast revenue to increase by 3.5%-4.5% and adjusted earnings of $2.75-$2.85. That guidance was conservative compared with the nearly 5% growth Wall Street predicted, as gas and diesel prices remain elevated, potentially weighing on consumer spending. Wall Street analysts estimated adjusted earnings of $2.97 per share for the year.

CFO John David Rainey told investors on the fourth quarter earnings call, “Our goal is to outperform this guidance, but we believe it’s prudent to start the year with a level of conservatism given the backdrop is still somewhat unstable.”

For the first quarter, the company said it expects revenue to grow 3.5%-4.5% and adjusted per-share earnings to tally $0.63-$0.65. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect adjusted earnings of $0.66 on revenue of $174.8 billion.

It’s worth noting that Walmart last reported results on Feb. 19, before the onset of the US-Iran war. At a conference in early April, Rainey said the outlook was still “pretty much intact.”

“The consumer continues to be very resilient,” he said. “Tax refunds [have] had a bigger benefit than what we imagined at that point in time when we gave guidance for the quarter.”

Yet, Deutsche Bank’s Katai told clients that “the company isn’t immune to rising cost pressures” because of the war in Iran, nor to “macro-driven challenges to consumer demand.”

Wall Street is also watching Walmart’s high-margin businesses, including advertising, the Walmart+ membership program, and last-mile delivery.