Trump Touts US-China Relations, But This Senator Says China 'Never Lived Up To One Contract'—And Prediction Markets Agree

Daragh Thomas

Mon, May 18, 2026 at 12:31 PM EDT 7 min read

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Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) said Thursday morning that China has “never lived up to one contract they’ve ever signed,” delivering a blunt counter to President Donald Trump’s claim from Beijing overnight that U.S.-China relations are “going to be better than ever before.”

Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box as Trump kicked off a two-day summit with Xi Jinping, Scott said he does not believe Xi will “do anything other than lie, cheat and steal.” He cited the WTO, the previous trade deal and Beijing’s continued imprisonment of Hong Kong media mogul Jimmy Lai.

“I’m appreciative that President Trump is busting his butt,” Scott said. “But do I believe Xi will do anything other than lie, cheat and steal? No, I don’t.”

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What Prediction Markets Are Pricing In

Prediction markets agree with Scott on one thing: the big policy concessions are not coming. Polymarket has tariff reduction at just 37%, down 14 points despite Trump telegraphing a deal all week.

What traders do expect is commercial. Kalshi has U.S. soybean purchases at 85% and Boeing aircraft purchases at 82% as the most likely announcements from the trip. U.S. oil purchases are at 78% and a rare-earth export extension sits at 74%.

What traders are not pricing in is anything that costs Beijing politically.

A detained Americans release sits at 29% on Polymarket, new sanctions at just 2% and a Taiwan arms sales halt at 5%.

A fentanyl precursor crackdown sits at 67% on Kalshi.

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The Jensen Huang Trade

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang joined Trump’s delegation last-minute on the Alaska stopover, alongside Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Apple CEO Tim Cook. The market read is that the chip CEO is on the plane because relief is coming.

Treasury Secretary Bessent, also speaking to CNBC, claimed zero knowledge of reports that the U.S. quietly cleared ten Chinese firms to buy Nvidia’s coveted H200 AI chips, punting the issue to the Commerce Department.

Nvidia has bled China revenue to chip restrictions across two administrations. Any rollback would land directly on the top line, and traders appear to be pricing the optics.

Image: Shutterstock

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