Can TSM’s Stock Reach $600 By 2028?

Vandita Jadeja

Tue, May 19, 2026 at 10:01 AM EDT 4 min read

Quick Read

• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) reported Q1 2026 revenue of $35.9B with record 66.2% gross margin, with HPC now driving 61% of wafer revenue and CEO confirming AI-related demand is extremely robust.

• The company raised 2026 revenue growth guidance above 30% and CapEx to the high end of $52-56B, with forward EPS of $15.35 and eight consecutive earnings beats.

• Taiwan Semiconductor’s path to $600 by 2028 hinges on sustaining mid-to-high-50s AI accelerator revenue CAGR, successful N2 and A14 node ramps, and stable geopolitical conditions around Taiwan, as the stock currently trades at 26x forward earnings on 58% YoY EPS growth.

• The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 stocks and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing wasn't one of them. Get them here FREE.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM | TSM Price Prediction) just delivered a quarter that should end the debate about who owns the AI buildout. Q1 2026 revenue hit $35.9 billion with a record 66.2% gross margin, and CEO C.C. Wei told investors that "AI-related demand continues to be extremely robust." HPC alone now drives 61% of wafer revenue. Shares are up 26.06% YTD to $402.90. Can TSM hit $600 by 2028?

Why TSM Shares Haven't Broken $500 Yet

TSM is down 0.41% over the past week after climbing 8.74% in the last month and 108.21% over the past year.

The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 stocks and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing wasn't one of them. Get them here FREE.

Some DCF models peg fair value at $215.69 to $254.08, suggesting shares trade 82.4% to 88.4% above intrinsic value. U.S.-China tensions, Iran war disruptions to chemical supplies, and a 2% to 3% gross margin drag from the N2 ramp weigh on sentiment. A beta of 1.264 amplifies moves in either direction. After a 108% one-year run, profit-taking is rational.

Wall Street Sees 15% Upside. I Think That's Too Conservative

The consensus target sits at $463.45, with 5 Strong Buy, 12 Buy, and 2 Hold ratings. Barclays raised its target to $470 and Needham to $480 after Q1. Our own 12-month view of $473.33 implies roughly 17% upside. Every one of these targets is a 12-month number.

By 2028, TSM expects to ship A14 in volume, push N3 into Arizona and Japan, and capitalize on what management called the "multiyear AI megatrend." Wei's guidance for AI accelerator revenue is a mid- to high-50s CAGR through 2029. That math doesn't fit inside a $475 target.

The Path to $600 Per Share

Reaching $600 from today's price of $402.90 would require a gain of 48.9%. With forward EPS of $15.35, a price of $600 implies a forward P/E of 39x. Our base case of $473 already implies roughly 31x on current forward earnings, meaning the bold target requires about 8x of additional multiple expansion or equivalent EPS growth.