Nvidia Earnings on May 20: What History Tells Us About Nvidia Stock's Post-Earnings-Release Moves

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) is scheduled to report its results for the first quarter of fiscal 2027 (ended April 26, 2026) on Wednesday, May 20, after the market close.

The company's earnings release has become the most anticipated during the quarterly earnings season. Nvidia dominates the artificial intelligence (AI) chip and related AI infrastructure market, making it a bellwether for the entire AI space. And this space has been very hot for much of the last three years.

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Last quarter, Nvidia sprinted by Wall Street's estimates for revenue and earnings and guidance -- and there are good reasons to believe it will do the same this quarter.

Hyperscalers' planned 2026 capital expenditures point to a fantastic quarter for Nvidia

The biggest indicator that Nvidia is poised for a fantastic quarter is that hyperscalers (big tech companies that operate massive data centers) have continued to increase their planned capital expenditures (capex), with most of this spending earmarked for AI infrastructure.

On their first-quarter earnings calls, the four largest hyperscalers -- Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms -- said their capex plans for 2026 are collectively about $725 billion. This level -- which could further increase as the year progresses -- would be up 77% from last year's $410 billion.

Nvidia's fiscal Q1 guidance and Wall Street's estimates

Data sources: Nvidia and Yahoo! Finance. Fiscal Q1 2027 ended April 26. GAAP = generally accepted accounting principles. *Calculation by the author based on the metrics for which management provided guidance.

As with the last couple of quarters, Nvidia's guidance assumed no data center AI chip sales to China.

Wall Street's estimates for fiscal Q2 guidance

Investors typically care more about a company's prospects than its past performance. This is why a company's guidance (relative to Wall Street's expectations) often affects its stock price more than its current results following an earnings release.