Nvidia Earnings Wednesday: These ETFs Have the Most Riding on One Stock

When Nvidia reports earnings after the bell on Wednesday, May 20, it won't just be a single-stock event. It will be the most consequential moment of the quarter for the entire technology ETF complex.

Nvidia accounts for roughly 9.4% of the QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust), nearly 19% of the SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF), and 18.5% of the VGT (Vanguard Information Technology ETF). A big beat or miss will move billions of dollars in ETF assets before most investors finish their morning coffee on Thursday.

What Wall Street Expects

Consensus estimates call for $79.08 billion in revenue and $1.76 in earnings per share for Nvidia's fiscal first quarter of 2027. Those numbers would represent another quarter of extraordinary growth powered by the company's Blackwell GPU architecture and insatiable demand from hyperscale data center operators.

Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider expects Nvidia to beat the consensus revenue figure by roughly $2 billion, while Citi projects revenue closer to $80 billion. On Polymarket, the implied probability of a beat sits around 90%.

Nvidia shares closed at $221.70 on May 18, up roughly 19.3% year-to-date and near the all-time closing high of $235.74 set on May 14. The stock's approximately $5.4 trillion market capitalization as of May 18 makes it the world's most valuable company — and the single largest holding in many of the most widely owned ETFs.

Where the Nvidia Exposure Is Highest

Not all ETFs carry the same Nvidia risk. Here is how the major funds stack up by Nvidia weight:

SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF): ~19% Nvidia weight. This is the purest large-cap semiconductor bet. With just 25 holdings and a market-cap weighting methodology, SMH lives and dies by its top names. Nvidia is nearly one-fifth of the fund. Page views for SMH on ETF.com are up 42.8% — investors are clearly watching.

VGT (Vanguard Information Technology ETF): ~18.5% Nvidia weight. VGT casts a wider net than SMH, holding over 300 tech stocks including software, hardware, and services companies alongside semiconductors. But Nvidia is still nearly a fifth of the fund, making it just as sensitive to Wednesday's report.

QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust): ~9.4% Nvidia weight. QQQ is ETF.com's most-visited fund page with 351,000 page views last month, up 16.6%. Its ~102-stock Nasdaq-100 tracking provides more diversification than semiconductor-focused funds, but Nvidia is still comfortably the largest holding. A 5% move in Nvidia stock translates to roughly a 0.5% move in QQQ.

SOXX (iShares Semiconductor ETF): ~7% Nvidia weight. SOXX uses a market-cap weighting methodology, so Nvidia's influence is more muted here than in SMH. Micron, AMD, and Broadcom all carry similar weights. For investors who want semiconductor exposure with less single-stock concentration, SOXX offers a different risk profile.