Nvidia earnings: here's what analysts are watching

Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA, XETRA:NVD) reports first-quarter results after the close on Wednesday, and analysts have a long list of things they want to hear about -- from a potential blockbuster buyback to the rollout of its next-generation chips.

Wedbush fully expects Nvidia to again exceed estimates and guide above consensus. The firm pointed to healthy AI infrastructure spending it believes will continue through 2027.

Nvidia's supply chain positioning gives it an edge that rivals will find hard to match, analysts added.

On spending, Wedbush said US cloud provider capex is accelerating, with neocloud investments growing even faster than hyperscale. Analysts also flagged expanding data center build-outs in 2027, particularly outside the US, and said potential resolution of issues around the Middle East and China could become additional catalysts.

Supply chain confidence is a central part of the Wedbush bull case. The firm said widespread bottlenecks across advanced logic, memory, optical transceivers, and other components are constraining the broader AI ecosystem -- but not Nvidia. It pointed to the company's $95.2 billion in supply chain commitments and its investments in upstream suppliers as evidence that Nvidia is simply better positioned than peers. Wedbush said that edge makes a meaningful revenue shortfall or significant share gains by competitors unlikely as long as AI demand stays strong.

The firm expects first-quarter revenue to come in above $80 billion with EPS of at least $1.80, and sees second-quarter guidance in the upper $80 billion range, with the high end potentially touching $90 billion or above. It added that a shift in first-half numbers flowing through the rest of fiscal 2027 and 2028 could push its earnings estimates roughly 15% higher.

UBS also raised its price target, to $275 from $245, forecasting first-quarter revenue of around $81 billion and second-quarter guidance of $90 billion to $91 billion. Analysts flagged some rack-level cooling adjustments pushing Rubin rack production into September and October, though said strong Blackwell demand should cushion any near-term impact.

Capital returns are another key focus. UBS is watching for a buyback authorization approaching $150 billion and said dividend pressure is growing.

Bank of America echoed that, noting Nvidia has returned just 47% of free cash flow to shareholders since 2022, well below the roughly 80% typical of large-cap tech peers.

Bank of America also dismissed concerns about competition from Google TPUs, arguing Nvidia's software ecosystem and multi-cloud reach make it very hard to displace, and forecast the company will hold around 70% revenue share in an AI market that could top $1.7 trillion by 2030.

Nvidia shares are up around 2.2% on Wednesday morning.