Beyond Tracking or Shortcut: Composition-Bounded Predictive States in Poker Autoregressive Models
Quick Answer
This study reveals that in a no-limit Hold'em autoregressive model, most recoverable opponent-range information stems from visible betting composition rather than hidden states.
Quick Take
The model achieves 16.5-16.7% top-10 accuracy using action/value and composition, while hidden-state probes yield only 11.4-12.2%. This indicates a need for careful interpretation of belief probes in predictive modeling.
Key Points
- Opponent-range probes show positive results after action/value controls in two of three seeds.
- Visible public betting composition explains more opponent-range signal than hidden states.
- Action/value+composition baselines achieve 16.5-16.7% top-10 accuracy.
- Hidden-state probes yield lower accuracy at 11.4-12.2% top-10.
- Positive belief probes require targeted alternatives for accurate interpretation.
Paper Resources
Source Excerpt
Hidden-state probes often recover latent labels in imperfect-information sequence models, but this alone does not establish that a model maintains a posterior belief distribution over hidden states. This paper studies this ambiguity in a no-range Limit Hold'em autoregressive model trained only on action and value targets, not on an opponent's hand or range. Opponent-range probes are positive after action/value controls in two of three seeds, and the behavior head predicts held-out actions about
Want this in your inbox every morning?
Daily brief at your local 8am — bilingual EN/中文, free.
More from arXiv cs.AI
See more →RAIL Guard: Closing the Evaluation-to-Remediation Gap in Responsible AI for Agents
RAIL Guard introduces a closed-loop AI pipeline for large language models (LLMs) that evaluates outputs across eight dimensions and iteratively remediates failures, achieving 96.9% convergence compared to 49.1% for traditional block-and-retry methods. The system reduces unsafe agent executions by 33% without impacting task completion and is available as open-source SDKs.