Why Boeing Has the Most to Lose If Tesla and SpaceX Ever Combine

Quick Read

• Speculation has Elon Musk potentially merging Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX within the next decade.

• A unified Musk competitor would compound pressure on Boeing (BA) during its fragile recovery and as insider confidence is wavering.

• The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 stocks and Boeing wasn't one of them. Get them here FREE.

Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management and Elon Musk biographer Walter Isaacson have floated the idea that Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) and SpaceX could combine within the next decade. This remains speculation rather than a deal. For Boeing (NYSE: BA), the hypothetical lands harder than for any other company.

Boeing: A Fragile Recovery Meets a Hypothetical Megacompetitor

Boeing is mid-turnaround. Q1 2026 revenue hit $22.217 billion, up 14% year over year, with a core loss per share of $0.20 and free cash flow of negative $1.454 billion. Commercial Airplanes ran a 6.1% negative operating margin. The backlog is a record $695 billion, and debt was cut to $47.2 billion from $54.1 billion.

CEO Kelly Ortberg commented: "We're building on our momentum with a strong start to the year and growing record-breaking backlog across our business, while supporting our customers with inspiring missions like Artemis II."

The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 stocks and Boeing wasn't one of them. Get them here FREE.

The stock paints a less inspiring picture. Shares closed most recently at $215.01, down 9.2% in a week and 1.0% year to date. A Polymarket contract puts the probability of a U.S. federal stake in Boeing by year-end at 29.5%.

Where a Musk Megamerger Would Bite

A combined Tesla and SpaceX would fuse launch dominance with vertical-integration manufacturing and artificial intelligence (AI). Boeing's direct exposure spans Starliner versus Crew Dragon, SLS subcontracting versus Starship, satellite manufacturing versus Starlink, NSSL defense launch contracts, and ULA, which Boeing owns 50% with Lockheed. Layer in talent flight risk, capital markets advantage if SpaceX goes public through the merger, and Tesla Optimus crossing into defense robotics, and the threat compounds.

Insiders show limited conviction. On February 19, 2026, Ortberg parted with 5,016.643 shares at $236.71, alongside 10 other executives in a five-day window.

Boeing's Better-Executing Peers

Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) trades at $526.63, up 8.9% year to date. CEO Jim Taiclet described framework deals to "increase production rates of these critical systems by 3-4 times current rates." Lockheed won a $1.5 billion Peru F-16 contract and a $4.8 billion PAC-3 award.