Nvidia poised for another beat as BofA flags five key investor debates

Proactive

Tue, May 19, 2026 at 3:41 PM EDT 2 min read

WIth Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA, XETRA:NVD) set to report first-quarter results after the close on Wednesday, Bank of America analysts have identified five areas likely to drive investor focus.

Analysts have zeroed in on enhanced cash returns, the timing of the Vera Rubin architecture ramp in the second half of 2026, gross margin durability around 75% amid continued cost inflation, an update to Nvidia's $1 trillion revenue forecast for 2025 through 2027, and the competitive landscape against Google TPUs and agentic CPU architectures.

Bank of America said it expects Nvidia's historical pattern of $2 to $4 billion in sales outperformance relative to sell-side expectations.

On cash returns, the bank said Nvidia has allocated only 47% of free cash flow from 2022 through 2025 to dividends and buybacks, against roughly 80% for large-cap technology peers, with capital instead directed toward ecosystem investments including stakes in OpenAI and Anthropic.

The bank called concerns about circular or vendor financing unfair, and said boosting shareholder returns could expand Nvidia's investor base and close a valuation gap. Nvidia shares trade at less than 20 times the bank's 2027 earnings estimate, with a PEG ratio of 0.4 times against a projected 2025 to 2028 earnings per share CAGR of more than 46%.

Enhanced returns are more likely in the second half, but the bank said earnings call signaling could itself move the needle.

On competition, Bank of America said concerns over Google TPUs and agentic CPU architectures are misplaced. The bank argued Nvidia's product breadth, software ecosystem, and multi-cloud availability create infrastructure that rivals would find difficult to displace, and forecast the company will sustain approximately 70% revenue share in an AI total addressable market projected to exceed $1.7 trillion by 2030.

The bank added that CPU-to-GPU ratios in deployed Blackwell and TPU clusters already sit at one to two with no link to agentic demand, and that Nvidia's forthcoming Vera CPU is expected to be competitive as a standalone offering, with related announcements anticipated at Computex.