Stocks Set to Open Lower as Oil Rises Amid Iran Impasse, Nvidia Earnings and Fed Minutes Awaited

Oleksandr Pylypenko

Mon, May 18, 2026 at 6:36 AM EDT 11 min read

June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM26) are down -0.41%, and June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQM26) are down -0.30% this morning, pointing to a lower open on Wall Street as oil prices continue to rise amid the stalemate between the U.S. and Iran.

The price of WTI crude rose over +1% on Monday amid prospects of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday on his social media platform that “For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them.” The remarks heightened concerns that the conflict could shift back into a more active military phase, delaying any normalization of traffic through the waterway. Iran’s Islamic Republic News Agency quoted the Defense Ministry spokesman as saying the Iranian Armed Forces are “fully prepared to confront any new potential attack by the U.S. and the Israeli regime against the country.” Meanwhile, a drone ignited a fire in a power station at the United Arab Emirates’ Barakah nuclear plant on Sunday, while Saudi Arabia said it had intercepted three drones.

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The 10-year T-note yield rose one basis point to 4.61% on Monday as higher oil prices fueled inflation concerns. Investors now see a 70% chance of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike by year-end and are fully pricing in a move by March 2027.

Investor focus this week is on an earnings report from chip giant Nvidia, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting, and a fresh batch of U.S. economic data.

In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages closed sharply lower. Chip stocks sank, with Arm Holdings (ARM) slumping over -8% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100, and Micron Technology (MU) sliding more than -6%. Also, cryptocurrency-exposed stocks slid after Bitcoin dropped more than -2%, with Coinbase Global (COIN) falling over -7% and MARA Holdings (MARA) declining more than -6%. In addition, travel stocks fell as oil prices climbed, with United Airlines (UAL) and American Airlines (AAL) dropping over -3%. On the bullish side, DexCom (DXCM) rose more than +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after activist investor Elliott Investment Management took a stake in the company and reached a settlement that will place two independent directors on the board.