Dear Target Stock Fans, Mark Your Calendars for May 20

Nauman Khan

Tue, May 19, 2026 at 11:14 AM EDT 4 min read

Target (TGT) is set to report first-quarter earnings on May 20 before the market opens, and the stock enters the release with a noticeably stronger chart. Shares are up more than 27% year-to-date as investors have warmed to CEO Michael Fiddelke’s reset plan and the company’s efforts to rebuild traffic, refresh stores, and lean harder into technology and merchandising changes.

The move has not been driven by momentum alone. Target’s stock also jumped nearly 7% after its March 3 fourth-quarter report, when management paired a profit beat with a 2026 outlook that pointed to a return to sales growth. That helped shares to gain more than 27% year-to-date (YTD). It looks like the company may finally be stabilizing after a long and difficult stretch.

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Even after the rally, Target does not look especially expensive, but it is not obviously cheap either. The stock trades at about 15 times trailing earnings and roughly 6.8 times EV/EBITDA, compared with a five-year average EV/EBITDA of around 8.2.

Heavy Spending Is Central to the Reset

Target is not trying to fix the business on the cheap. The retailer is investing more than $2 billion in incremental spending this year, part of a broader $5 billion capital plan aimed at new stores, remodels, faster same-day delivery, and a better in-store experience.

That spending shows how much work still remains. Management has been clear that the strategy is about more than cutting costs or trimming distractions. It is trying to rebuild the shopping experience, improve execution, and make the brand more relevant again in a highly competitive retail market.

Executives said sales and traffic trends improved late in the fourth quarter, and February delivered a healthy sales increase. That gave bulls a reason to believe the business may be finding a floor after a rough run.

Q1 Will Show Whether the Recovery Is Real

Target’s latest quarterly results were mixed, but not bad enough to derail the rally.

In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, the company reported adjusted earnings of $2.44 per share, topping estimates of $2.16. Revenue came in at $30.5 billion, down 1.5% from a year earlier and slightly below expectations. Comparable sales fell 2.5%, store traffic remained under pressure, and digital sales rose 1.9%. For the full year, adjusted earnings per share came in at $7.57, down from $8.86 a year earlier.