Formalizing and falsifying causal pathways of rare events
Quick Take
This paper formalizes causal pathways for rare events in structural equation models, emphasizing that implications can depend solely on the causal abstraction of these pathways. It introduces a new abstraction that connects simple verbal explanations with detailed causal modeling, enhancing root cause analysis for outliers.
Key Points
- Proposes a formal definition of causal pathways for rare events.
- Identifies conditions where implications depend only on causal abstractions.
- Introduces a new abstraction bridging verbal explanations and causal modeling.
- Enhances root cause analysis for outliers in structural equation models.
Article Excerpt
From source RSS / original summaryarXiv:2605. 31254v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Building on recent formalizations of root cause analysis for rare events (``outliers'') in structural equation models, we propose a formal definition of a causal pathway and discuss its testable implications. We identify conditions under which these implications depend only on a causal abstraction defined by the pathway of rare events, rather than on the full causal graph of the underlying system.
Accordingly, we introduce an abstraction of causal structure to pathways of rare events that bridges simple verbal causal explanations and detailed causal modeling.
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